US 10-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since January 2025

2026-08-31 13:43 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a fourth consecutive session to 4.76% on Monday, reaching its highest level since January 2025, as oil prices climbed after the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month, heightening inflation concerns and prompting traders to increase their bets on a Fed rate hike in September.

Comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday reinforced those expectations, with Warsh saying the Fed would “have work to do” if policymakers did not gain confidence that inflation was moving toward its 2% target.

Warsh has consistently emphasized the need to bring inflation down, although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at both its June and July meetings, leaving some uncertainty over the timing of a potential move.

Markets are currently pricing roughly a 64% probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September.



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