US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises After Fed Decision

2026-07-29 18:26 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note increased to 4.66% on Wednesday after the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, despite markets assigning roughly a one-in-three probability to a rate hike.

However, three FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25bps increase.

During the regular press conference, Chair Warsh did not provide much guidance but said the central bank "where necessary and appropriate, will not hesitate to act” and that higher rates “could well be part of the solution" to remedy too-high inflation.

Markets currently assign roughly a 54% probability of a rate hike, lower than nearly 80% before the decision.

Looking further ahead, around two additional quarter-point rate hikes remain fully priced in by the middle of next year.

Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their upward trend as hostilities in the Middle East intensified.



News Stream
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises After Fed Decision
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note increased to 4.66% on Wednesday after the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, despite markets assigning roughly a one-in-three probability to a rate hike. However, three FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25bps increase. During the regular press conference, Chair Warsh did not provide much guidance but said the central bank "where necessary and appropriate, will not hesitate to act” and that higher rates “could well be part of the solution" to remedy too-high inflation. Markets currently assign roughly a 54% probability of a rate hike, lower than nearly 80% before the decision. Looking further ahead, around two additional quarter-point rate hikes remain fully priced in by the middle of next year. Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their upward trend as hostilities in the Middle East intensified.
2026-07-29
US 10-Year Yield Steadies Ahead of Fed Decision
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.65% on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with policymakers widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, markets continue to price in about a one-third chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, reflecting an unusually high level of uncertainty this close to a policy meeting compared with recent years. Traders also assign roughly an 80% probability to a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated. Investors also monitored rebounding oil prices and renewed inflation concerns after fresh hostilities flared in the Middle East. The US military said it had successfully intercepted what it described as a surprise Iranian attack targeting US troops stationed across the Middle East, reigniting regional tensions.
2026-07-29
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls for 3rd Session
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for a third consecutive session to 4.59% on Tuesday, its lowest level in about a week, as lower oil prices continued to support demand for government bonds. The ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared to be holding, while discussions involving Saudi Arabia and Oman over the future of the Strait of Hormuz remained in focus. Investors are also turning their attention to the Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting, which begins today. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at tomorrow's policy decision, with markets assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate hike. Traders will also closely scrutinise the voting split for clues on the likelihood of a September hike, which is currently priced at around 80%.
2026-07-28