US Economic Activity Weakens in March

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.14 in April 2026 from a revised –0.15 in March, marking its strongest reading since March 2025. The rebound pointed to improving economic momentum, driven largely by a sharp recovery in production activity. Two of the four broad categories used to construct the index improved from the previous month, while two categories made positive contributions overall in April. Production-related indicators added +0.18 (up from –0.13 in March), and sales, orders, and inventories contributed +0.02 (up from –0.03). Employment-related indicators subtracted –0.02 (down from neutral in March), and personal consumption and housing subtracted –0.04 (also down from neutral).

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.20 in March 2026, its lowest level since November 2025, down from a revised +0.03 in February. Three of the four key categories declined, with production-related indicators contributing -0.20 (down from +0.13 in February), sales, orders, and inventories subtracting -0.01 (from +0.05), and personal consumption and housing also at -0.01 (from neutral). Only employment-related indicators improved, adding +0.02 compared to -0.15 in February.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February 2026 from an upwardly revised +0.20 in January, suggesting economic growth decreased in the month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.01, down from +0.21 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01, unchanged from January. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10, down from +0.02 in January. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was +0.01, up from -0.02.