US Economic Activity Weakens in March

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.20 in March 2026, its lowest level since November 2025, down from a revised +0.03 in February. Three of the four key categories declined, with production-related indicators contributing -0.20 (down from +0.13 in February), sales, orders, and inventories subtracting -0.01 (from +0.05), and personal consumption and housing also at -0.01 (from neutral). Only employment-related indicators improved, adding +0.02 compared to -0.15 in February.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February 2026 from an upwardly revised +0.20 in January, suggesting economic growth decreased in the month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.01, down from +0.21 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01, unchanged from January. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10, down from +0.02 in January. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was +0.01, up from -0.02.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December.