Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in February

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February 2026 from an upwardly revised +0.20 in January, suggesting economic growth decreased in the month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.01, down from +0.21 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01, unchanged from January. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10, down from +0.02 in January. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was +0.01, up from -0.02.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October which was the lowest in ten months, signalling that economic growth increased on the month. Production-related indicators contributed +0.08, up from -0.26 in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.03 in November, unchanged from October. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.11 in October and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.02, up from -0.03 in October. Meanwhile, the CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.24 in November from -0.43 in October.