Italy Inflation Rate Above Forecasts


Italy’s annual inflation rate came in at 0.8 percent in June of 2019, the same as in the previous month while markets were expecting a decrease to 0.7 percent, a preliminary estimate showed. It remains at its lowest level since April of 2018, as inflation was steady for both food and non-alcoholic beverages and health.

Year-on-year, inflation should be steady for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 0.4 percent), as higher prices of processed food (0.3 percent from 0.2 percent) were offset by lower cost of unprocessed food (0.7 percent from 0.8 percent) and health (at 0.5 percent). 

Cost is expected to slow for transport (0.8 percent from 1.8 percent), namely services related to transport (1.5 percent from 1.6 percent); housing and utilities (3.2 percent from 3.3 percent), due to a fall in prices of non-regulated energy (-0.6 percent from 2.4 percent) while regulated energy inflation was unchanged (at 4.3 percent); and clothing and footwear (0.2 percent from 0.3 percent). On the other hand, prices are seen rising faster for restaurants and hotels (1.4 percent from 1.1 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (1.6 percent from 1.5 percent) alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.2 percent from 2.1 percent). 

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, is expected to advance to 0.5 percent in June from 0.4 percent in the prior month. Excluding only energy, inflation should increase to 0.6 percent from 0.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices should increase 0.2 percent in June, following May’s 0.2 percent gain and above market consensus of 0.1 percent. 

The harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to rise 0.8 percent from the previous year (from 0.9 percent in May); and to advance 0.1 percent month-over-month (the same as in May).

Italy Inflation Rate Above Forecasts


Istat | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com
6/28/2019 9:36:59 AM