U.S. Retail Sales  Forecast


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Retail Sales MoM in the United States is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United States to stand at 0.35 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the U.S. Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


United States Consumer Last Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 98.5 94 94 94.5 93 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.2 0.2 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.1 0.4 0.36 0.4 0.35 0.4
Consumer Spending 11922 11989 12057 12118 12175 12541
Disposable Personal Income 14465 14408 14407 14405 14403 14384
Personal Spending 1 0.4 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.5
Personal Income 0.4 0.6 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44
Personal Savings 3.1 3.56 3.6 3.73 3.84 4.67
Consumer Credit 20.83 13.35 11.68 10.43 9.63 7.94
Private Sector Credit 9420 9480 9535 9562 9575 9554
Bank Lending Rate 4.25 4.15 4.15 4.25 4.6 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 53.6 50.55 50.31 50.12 49.97 49.55
Redbook Index 4.1 2.74 2.54 2.43 2.36 2.28
Gasoline Prices 0.66 0.63 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 78.7 80 80.2 80.3 77.14 82.6
Chain Store Sales 4077 5966 6343 6464 6503 6529
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113 111 110 109 108 103
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.2 80.46 80.13 79.83 79.58 78.42
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.7 2.76 2.81 2.85 2.89 3.23