U.S. Retail Sales  Forecast 2016-2020

Retail Sales MoM in the United States is expected to be 0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United States to stand at 0.29 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the U.S. Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

U.S. Retail Sales
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Retail Sales MoM 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.29 0.4 percent
U.S. Retail Sales Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of U.S. Retail Sales using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - U.S. Retail Sales - was last predicted on Sunday, May 28, 2017.
United States Consumer Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.1 95.3 95 94 94 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.29 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.5 3 3.1 4.79 4.78 4.78
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.31 0.31 0.31
Consumer Spending 11688 11745 11796 11832 11877 12209
Disposable Personal Income 14428 14539 14650 14762 14873 16091
Personal Spending 0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5
Personal Income 0.2 0.32 0.32 0.6 0.32 0.32
Personal Savings 5.9 5.64 5.7 5.69 5.69 5.69
Consumer Credit 16.43 16.75 16.92 16.96 16.96 16.96
Private Sector Credit 9178 9237 9310 9381 9447 9982
Bank Lending Rate 4 4 3.94 4.25 3.96 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 51.3 50.95 50.34 50.11 50.03 49.97
Redbook Index 2 1.97 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98
Gasoline Prices 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 79.4 79.5 79.5 80 80.26 82.6
Chain Store Sales 4223 4978 4810 4848 4840 4842