Philadelphia Factory Activity Disappoints

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index improved to 10.3 in June 2026 from -0.4 in May, slightly above market expectations of 10, signaling a return to expansion in regional manufacturing activity. Around 32% of firms reported higher activity, compared with 22% reporting declines, while 45% saw no change. The current shipments index increased 10 points to 14.9, and the new orders index jumped 29 points to 27.3, indicating stronger demand conditions. Employment also improved, with the employment index rising 11 points to 7.9, its highest level since January, although most companies reported unchanged staffing levels. Price pressures remained elevated, with the prices paid index rising 5 points to 53.2, while the prices received index declined 6 points to 20.3, its lowest since February but still above historical averages. Firms remained optimistic, continuing to expect growth over the next six months.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -0.4 in May 2026 from 26.7 in the prior month and against market forecasts of 18. The reading pointed to a marginal contraction in regional manufacturing activity after a solid expansion in the month before. The shipments index declined 29 points to 4.9, and the new orders index fell 35 points to -1.7, its lowest reading since April 2025. The employment index improved by 2 points to -2.8 in May but remained in negative territory for the third time in four months, signaling continued job shedding. Both price indexes declined this month but remained above their long-run averages. The current prices paid index fell 11 points to 47.9 in May, while prices received index deceased 7 points to 26.3. Looking ahead, firms continued to anticipate overall growth in the coming six months, with most future indicators climbing from already elevated levels.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.7 in April 2026 from 18.1 in the prior month, hitting its strongest level since January 2025. The data surprised analysts on the upside, comfortably exceeding expectations for a drop to 10. The current shipments index rose 12 points to 34.0, while the index for current new orders jumped 24 points to 33.0. Meanwhile, the employment index fell 6 points to -5.1 in April. Both price indexes increased for the second month, continuing to run well above their long-term averages and marking their highest levels since August. The prices paid index rose 15 points to 59.3 in April, while the current prices received index rose 12 points to 33.5. Looking forward, the firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators have moved down.