US Services Activity Inches Down as Expected

The ISM Services PMI in the US fell to 54.0 in June 2026, down from 54.5 in May, matching market expectations. The reading still indicates solid expansion in US services activity, though at a softer pace, driven by a slowdown in business activity growth (55.4 vs. 57.7 in May) and new orders (55.1 vs. 57.3). Meanwhile, the employment index saw its largest increase since 2024, rising to 51.2 from 47.9, marking the first expansion in headcount since February. Price inflation also eased to a four-month low of 67.7, down from 71.3. Despite ongoing concerns about persistent inflation tied to the Middle East conflict, survey respondents noted that business conditions remain robust.

The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.5 in May 2026 from 53.6 in April, above forecasts of 53.8. The reading pointed to the strongest gain in the services sector in three months, with faster growth seen for business activity (57.7 vs 55.9), new orders (57.3 vs 53.5) and inventories (62.5 vs 53.1). On the other hand, employment contracted for a third consecutive month (47.9 vs 48), with respondents commenting frequently that their companies had instituted hiring freezes or were not back filling vacated positions. In addition, price pressures intensified to hit the highest since August 2022 (71.3 vs 70.7), with diesel, gasoline, oil and related commodities being once again most frequently mentioned as up in price. Also, petroleum-related products were mentioned as a commodity up in price, a dynamic not seen yet in April. Meanwhile, growth in backlog of orders slowed (51.3 vs 53) and the supplier deliveries index indicated slower supplier delivery performance (55.2 vs 56.8).

The ISM Services PMI inched down to 53.6 in April of 2026 from 54 in the previous month, loosely aligned with market expectations of 53.7, but remained firmly above averages from the previous year. Business activity rose by 2 points to 55.9, reflecting a second month of resilience since the start of war in the Middle East, which triggered a surge in a energy costs. The increase in production was due to a drop in the backlog of orders (-0.6 to 53) as the gauge for new orders sank 7.1 points to 53.5, the sharpest decrease in three years. Consumers volume orders were dented due to the surge in prices since the start of the war, dimming the outlook on production should the conflict continue. Consistently, the price gauge held at 70.7, the highest since 2022. Companies cited higher fuel, gasoline, diesel, copper, and freight prices due to the war. On top of that, aluminum prices and lumber costs also jumped due to tariffs. Meanwhile, employment contracted for a second month.