US Services Sector Slows in March

The ISM Services PMI inched down to 53.6 in April of 2026 from 54 in the previous month, loosely aligned with market expectations of 53.7, but remained firmly above averages from the previous year. Business activity rose by 2 points to 55.9, reflecting a second month of resilience since the start of war in the Middle East, which triggered a surge in a energy costs. The increase in production was due to a drop in the backlog of orders (-0.6 to 53) as the gauge for new orders sank 7.1 points to 53.5, the sharpest decrease in three years. Consumers volume orders were dented due to the surge in prices since the start of the war, dimming the outlook on production should the conflict continue. Consistently, the price gauge held at 70.7, the highest since 2022. Companies cited higher fuel, gasoline, diesel, copper, and freight prices due to the war. On top of that, aluminum prices and lumber costs also jumped due to tariffs. Meanwhile, employment contracted for a second month.

The ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in March 2026 from 56.1 in February which was the highest since August 2022 and compared to forecasts of 55. The reading pointed to a slowdown in services activity, led by an ease in business activity (53.9 vs 59.9) and the first drop in employment in four months (45.2 vs 51.8). Also, the prices index rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022 from 63 in February, amid higher oil and fuel costs and the supplier deliveries index indicated slower performance compared to February (56.2 vs 53.9), also unsurprisingly with shipping issues and flight disruptions due to the Middle East conflict and winter weather. Meanwhile, inventories (54.8 vs 56.4) and order backlogs (53.6 vs 55.9) eased while new orders rose faster (60.6 vs 58.6). "The predominant commentary this month was about impacts and adjustments due to the conflict with Iran and the expected flow through of higher oil prices at some point", Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM said.

The ISM Services PMI for the US climbed to 56.1 in February 2026 from 53.8 in January, beating market expectations of 53.5 and marking the fastest expansion in the sector since August 2022. Growth was driven by a sharp pickup in business activity, with the subindex rising to 59.9 from 57.4, its strongest reading since September 2024. New orders recorded the sharpest rise in 17 months (58.6 vs 53.1), while employment growth accelerated to its strongest level in a year (51.8 vs 50.3). The Supplier Deliveries Index slipped to 53.9 from 54.2, marking a 15th straight month above 50, which signals slower deliveries and solid demand. Meanwhile, the Prices Index fell to 63, its lowest since March 2025, though still above 60, indicating persistent cost pressures.