US Hiring Expected to Cool in June

The US economy is expected to have added 110K jobs in June 2026, marking the smallest monthly increase in employment in four months, following three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected gains in nonfarm payrolls. In May, payrolls rose by 172K, although some analysts suggest that hiring related to the World Cup may have temporarily boosted employment. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3% for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, matching May's pace, while annual wage growth is forecast to edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%. Although payroll growth is expected to moderate, the June employment report is still likely to point to a resilient labour market.

The US economy added 172K jobs in May 2026, well above forecasts of 85K, and following an upwardly revised 179K gain in the previous month, continuing to point to a resilient labour market. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (70K), mainly food services and drinking places (48K); local government (55K), health care (35K) and manufacturing (7K). Employment in financial activities declined by 22K, mostly insurance carriers and related activities (-11K) and commercial banking (-3K). Meanwhile, employment in transportation and warehousing was essentially unchanged (+1K) and other industries including construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services also saw little changes. In addition, upward revisions to the March figures added to the strength of the report, with employment levels in March and April now estimated to be 93K higher than previously reported.

The US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May 2026, marking a modest slowdown after two consecutive months of job gains exceeding 100,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating slightly from April’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, wage growth is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%. The May report is expected to continue to reflect a resilient labour market, with the prevailing low-hire, low-fire dynamic remaining firmly in place. However, some analysts suggest that this dynamic may be evolving amid structural shifts in the economy, including rising adoption of AI and other emerging pressures.