US Economy Likely Added 85K Jobs in May

The US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May 2026, marking a modest slowdown after two consecutive months of job gains exceeding 100,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating slightly from April’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, wage growth is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%.The May report is expected to continue to reflect a resilient labour market, with the prevailing low-hire, low-fire dynamic remaining firmly in place. However, some analysts suggest that this dynamic may be evolving amid structural shifts in the economy, including rising adoption of AI and other emerging pressures.

The US economy added 115K jobs in April 2026, following an upwardly revised 185K increase in March, and way above market forecasts of 62K. Job gains occurred in health care (37K), transportation and warehousing (30K), and retail trade (22K). Federal government employment continued to decline (-9K) and decreases were also seen for information (-13K) and manufacturing (-2K). While the figure points to a moderation in hiring, it also marks the first back-to-back monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, reinforcing signs that the US labor market is gradually cooling while remaining broadly resilient. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 23K to -156K and the change for March was revised up by 7K to 185K. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16K lower than previously reported.

The US economy likely added 62K jobs in April 2026, following a 178K increase in March, which marked the strongest payroll gain since December 2024. While the figure would point to a moderation in hiring, it would also mark the first back-to-back monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, reinforcing signs that the US labor market is gradually cooling while remaining broadly resilient. Healthcare and social assistance likely continued to drive job creation, while manufacturing payrolls are expected to post another increase. Government employment, however, probably declined. The report is also expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% mom, slightly above March’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, wage growth is projected to accelerate to 3.8% from 3.5%. Analysts also note that it is still too early for any potential economic effects from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran to be reflected in the labor market data.