US Non Farm Payrolls Beat Forecasts Again

The US economy added 115K jobs in April 2026, following an upwardly revised 185K increase in March, and way above market forecasts of 62K. Job gains occurred in health care (37K), transportation and warehousing (30K), and retail trade (22K). Federal government employment continued to decline (-9K) and decreases were also seen for information (-13K) and manufacturing (-2K). While the figure points to a moderation in hiring, it also marks the first back-to-back monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, reinforcing signs that the US labor market is gradually cooling while remaining broadly resilient. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 23K to -156K and the change for March was revised up by 7K to 185K. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16K lower than previously reported.

The US economy likely added 62K jobs in April 2026, following a 178K increase in March, which marked the strongest payroll gain since December 2024. While the figure would point to a moderation in hiring, it would also mark the first back-to-back monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, reinforcing signs that the US labor market is gradually cooling while remaining broadly resilient. Healthcare and social assistance likely continued to drive job creation, while manufacturing payrolls are expected to post another increase. Government employment, however, probably declined. The report is also expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% mom, slightly above March’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, wage growth is projected to accelerate to 3.8% from 3.5%. Analysts also note that it is still too early for any potential economic effects from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran to be reflected in the labor market data.

The US economy added 178K jobs in March 2026, the most since December 2024, following a revised decline of 133K in February, when a strike in the healthcare sector weighed on employment. The figure came in well above market expectations of 60K. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare (76K), mostly ambulatory health care services (54K), reflecting an increase of 35K in offices of physicians as workers returned from a strike. Construction added 26K jobs following weather-related declines during the winter. Transportation and warehousing created 21K jobs, manufacturing added 15K and employment in social assistance continued its upward trend (14K). On the other hand, federal government employment continued to decline (-18K) and declines were also seen in financial activities (-15K). The change in payrolls for January was revised up by 34K to 160K, and the change for February was revised down by 41K to -133K. Employment combined for the two months is 7K lower than early reported.