US Nonfarm Payrolls Top Estimates

The US economy shed 92K jobs in February 2026, the most in four months, following a downwardly revised 126K rise in January and much worse than forecasts of a 59K gain. Employment in health care decreased by 28K in February, reflecting strike activity. Offices of physicians lost 37K jobs while hospitals added 12K. Employment in information (-11K) and federal government (-10K) continued to trend down. Declines were also seen in employment at transportation and warehousing (-11K) and manufacturing (-12K). In contrast, employment in social assistance continued its upward trend (9K), driven by individual and family services (12K). The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65K, from 48K to -17K, and the change for January was revised down by 4K from 130K to 126K. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69K lower than previously reported. Payroll employment changed little on net in 2025.

The US economy likely added 59K jobs in February 2026, marking a sharp slowdown from the strong 130K increase recorded in January. Part of the slowdown in hiring may be linked to strikes by the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals (UNAC/UHCP), which are expected to account for around 31K striking workers. The report is also expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Meanwhile, wages likely rose 0.3% month-on-month after a 0.4% increase in January, with annual wage growth seen at 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month.

The US economy added 130K payrolls in January 2026, much higher than a downwardly revised 48K rise in December and well above forecasts of 70K. It is the highest figure since December 2024, with job gains occurring in health care (82K), particulalrly ambulatory health care services (50K); social assistance (42K); and construction (33K). The manufacturing sector added 5K jobs. In contrast, federal government lost 34K jobs as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer in 2025 came off federal payrolls. Employment in financial activities was down by 22K. Employment showed little change over the month in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality. Meanwhile, total nonfarm employment growth for 2025 was revised down to +181K from +584K, implying average monthly job gains of just 15K, well below the previously reported 49K.