US Non Farm Payrolls Slightly Beat Forecasts

The US economy added 172K jobs in May 2026, well above forecasts of 85K, and following an upwardly revised 179K gain in the previous month, continuing to point to a resilient labour market. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (70K), mainly food services and drinking places (48K); local government (55K), health care (35K) and manufacturing (7K). Employment in financial activities declined by 22K, mostly insurance carriers and related activities (-11K) and commercial banking (-3K). Meanwhile, employment in transportation and warehousing was essentially unchanged (+1K) and other industries including construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services also saw little changes. In addition, upward revisions to the March figures added to the strength of the report, with employment levels in March and April now estimated to be 93K higher than previously reported.

The US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May 2026, marking a modest slowdown after two consecutive months of job gains exceeding 100,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating slightly from April’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, wage growth is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%. The May report is expected to continue to reflect a resilient labour market, with the prevailing low-hire, low-fire dynamic remaining firmly in place. However, some analysts suggest that this dynamic may be evolving amid structural shifts in the economy, including rising adoption of AI and other emerging pressures.

The US economy added 115K jobs in April 2026, following an upwardly revised 185K increase in March, and way above market forecasts of 62K. Job gains occurred in health care (37K), transportation and warehousing (30K), and retail trade (22K). Federal government employment continued to decline (-9K) and decreases were also seen for information (-13K) and manufacturing (-2K). While the figure points to a moderation in hiring, it also marks the first back-to-back monthly increase in employment in nearly a year, reinforcing signs that the US labor market is gradually cooling while remaining broadly resilient. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 23K to -156K and the change for March was revised up by 7K to 185K. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16K lower than previously reported.