US Small Business Optimism Lowest Since 2024

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 97.4 in June 2026, the highest in four months, compared to 95.3 in May and forecasts of 95.8. Expectations for better business conditions and real sales improved substantially. 21% of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 3 points from May and marking the highest reading since October 2024. Inflation ranks as the top problem. Still, the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future declined. Also, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months rose 10 points to a net 13%. “Lower fuel costs provide welcome relief for businesses as well as consumers, with firms anticipating improved operating conditions over the next six months. While there have been improvements in the overall environment, high interest rates and modest economic growth are causing owners to approach hiring and capital spending with caution”, said NFIB Chief Economist.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US decreased to 95.3 in May 2026, the lowest since October 2024, compared to 95.9 in April and forecasts of 96. “More small business owners are struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices, which are more challenging for small businesses to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors”, NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg, said. 19% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 2 points from April. It was followed by inflation, with 18% citing it as their single most important business problem. 70% reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent and only 16% plan to make capital outlays in the next three to six months, the lowest since 2009. A net 36% of small business owners raised average selling prices, the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% plan to increase prices, the highest reading since July 2022.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US held steady at 95.9 in April 2026, barely changed from March’s 11-month low of 95.8 and slightly below market expectations of 96.1. The index remained below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index dropped by 4 points to 88, though it stayed well above its historical average of 68. The Employment Index declined for a second straight month, while there were reports of both actual and planned price increases rising. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted, “Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street. While small business optimism remains fragile, the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cut Act should start to support the private sector in the coming months.”