US Manufacturing PMI Above Expectations in March

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March 2026, up from 51.6 in February and exceeding market expectations of 51.3, according to preliminary data. Production growth picked up, while new orders saw their strongest rise since October 2025, supported by stabilizing export demand after eight months of decline. Firms reported easing tariff pressures and stockpiling due to fears of prolonged Middle East war disruptions and potential price spikes. However, employment growth slowed to an eight-month low, and supplier delivery times lengthened to levels not seen since October 2022. Input and output prices surged, reflecting rising costs. Despite war-related concerns, business confidence reached a 13-month high, driven by reduced tariff worries and optimism over stronger domestic demand for US goods.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 in February of 2026 from 53.4 in the previous month, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 51.6 but remaining below the initial market expectations of 52.6. Still, the result reflected a seventh straight expansion in the sector's activity. New orders continued to increase, albeit at a softer pace as goods producers noted that high prices, tariffs, and adverse weather conditions dented client demand. The panel also noted that sales were increasingly dependent on domestic clients as the fallout of tariffs and retaliation from the White House against key trading partners drove exports to decline for an eighth month. Consequently, companies pared the pace of hiring and employment levels rose only fractionally. Looking ahead, business optimism improved despite the tariffs and higher inflation for raw materials.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in February from 52.4 in January, below expectations of 52.6, pointing to a seventh straight month of expansion but the weakest improvement in that period. Factory output growth slowed to its lowest level since July, while new orders edged down for the second time in three months, signaling softer demand. Employment growth nearly stalled, marking the smallest rise since last July as firms grew more cautious. Inventories of purchases declined for the first time since July and at the fastest pace in 13 months, reflecting lower input needs and supply constraints. Supplier delivery times lengthened to the most since October 2022 due to delays, shortages and adverse weather, highlighting ongoing pressures in supply chains despite moderating activity.