US Factory Activity Rises the Most in 3 Years: S&P Global

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI held at 52.3 in March 2026, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 52.4 but up from 51.6 in February. The reading signals solid expansion in the sector, driven by stronger output and new orders, particularly from domestic demand, as businesses stockpiled supplies and secured pricing amid the Middle East conflict. However, international sales continued to decline, hampered by tariffs and shipping challenges. Employment levels remained flat, while supplier delivery times worsened to the greatest extent in 3.5 years, reflecting war-related transportation disruptions and vendor stock shortages. Cost pressures intensified, with input inflation reaching its highest level since August 2025 and output charges rising at the fastest pace in seven months. Business confidence dipped slightly, as firms expressed concerns over rising energy prices and tariffs.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March 2026, up from 51.6 in February and exceeding market expectations of 51.3, according to preliminary data. Production growth picked up, while new orders saw their strongest rise since October 2025, supported by stabilizing export demand after eight months of decline. Firms reported easing tariff pressures and stockpiling due to fears of prolonged Middle East war disruptions and potential price spikes. However, employment growth slowed to an eight-month low, and supplier delivery times lengthened to levels not seen since October 2022. Input and output prices surged, reflecting rising costs. Despite war-related concerns, business confidence reached a 13-month high, driven by reduced tariff worries and optimism over stronger domestic demand for US goods.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 in February of 2026 from 53.4 in the previous month, revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 51.6 but remaining below the initial market expectations of 52.6. Still, the result reflected a seventh straight expansion in the sector's activity. New orders continued to increase, albeit at a softer pace as goods producers noted that high prices, tariffs, and adverse weather conditions dented client demand. The panel also noted that sales were increasingly dependent on domestic clients as the fallout of tariffs and retaliation from the White House against key trading partners drove exports to decline for an eighth month. Consequently, companies pared the pace of hiring and employment levels rose only fractionally. Looking ahead, business optimism improved despite the tariffs and higher inflation for raw materials.