Fed to Hold Rates Steady

The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting in April 2026, as policymakers navigate an increasingly complex environment. The outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain, with oil prices continuing to rise and inflation picking up due to the energy shock, even as labour market and broader economic indicators remain resilient. Investors will also closely watch policymakers’ assessment of the economic outlook and their guidance on the policy path ahead, particularly whether a rate hike could still be considered, although markets currently expect no changes to rates this year. This meeting could also mark the final one under Fed Chair Powell. The Justice Department said it would halt its criminal investigation into Powell, removing a key obstacle to the Senate’s confirmation of his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, whose appointment is set for May 15.

Some Fed officials favoured a two-sided framing of future rate decisions, highlighting that additional increases could be warranted if inflation persists above target levels, minutes from the last FOMC meeting in March showed. The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were elevated, and the majority of participants noted that these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely lead to more persistent increases in energy prices and these higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation. The Fed left the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a 2nd consecutive meeting in March 2026, in line with expectations. However, policymakers still signaled one reduction in the fed funds rate this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear.

The Fed left the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a 2nd consecutive meeting in March 2026, in line with expectations. Policymakers noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The implications of the war with Iran are uncertain. Against this backdrop, policymakers still expect one reduction in the fed funds rate this year and another in 2027, the same as in the December projections, though the timing remains unclear. The Fed also revised its GDP growth forecasts higher for both 2026 (2.4% vs 2.3% seen in December) and 2027 (2.3% vs 2%). Unemployment is projected at 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from December and 4.3% for 2027 (revised up from 4.2%). Both PCE and Core PCE inflation are now expected to be higher this year, at 2.7% each, compared with the December projections of 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. For 2027, both measures have been revised up to 2.2% from 2.1%.