US Consumer Inflation Expectations Ease in May

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US decreased to 3.5% in May 2026 from 3.6% in April which was the highest in a year. Price-growth expectations declined for gas (-0.1 percentage point to 5%), medical care (-0.7 percentage point to 8.9%) and college education (-0.8 percentage point to 8%). In contrast, consumers expect higher prices for home (+0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, the highest since July 2022), food (+0.6 percentage point to 5.8%) and rent (+1.4 percentage point to 7.4%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 2.7% and nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5%. In addition, the mean unemployment expectations fell by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%.

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US increased for a second month to 3.6% in April 2026, the highest in a year, compared to 3.4% in March. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Gas price growth expectations retreated appreciably to 5.1% from a 9.4% spike in March. A decrease was also seen in price change expectations for food (-0.8 percentage point to 5.2%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.6%), college education (-0.2 percentage point to 8.8%), rent (-1.1 percentage points to 6%) and home price (-0.3 percentage point to 3%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained steady at 3.1% for the three-year horizon and at 3% for the five-year one. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations went up by 0.4 percentage points to 43.9%, reaching the highest since April 2025.

Median year-ahead inflation expectations measured by the New York Fed rose to 3.4% in March of 2026 from 3% in the previous month, the highest so far this year. Consumer expectations for gasoline (9.4% vs 4.1% in February) price growth surged to the highest level since March of 2022 as the outbreak of war in the Middle East lifted benchmark energy prices. Inflation expectations were also higher for food (6% vs 5.3%) and rent (7.1% vs 5.9%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year-ahead horizon edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% and were unchanged at 3% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March. Elsewhere, spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Consumers were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations.