US Inflation Expectations Edge Higher

2026-01-08 16:19 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in each of the previous two months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

In contrast, three- and five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting stable longer-term inflation views.

Inflation uncertainty increased across all horizons, indicating growing dispersion in expectations about future price outcomes.

Meanwhile, median year-ahead price expectations declined across major household categories, including gas, food, medical care, college education, and rent.

The survey also pointed to softening labor market sentiment, with job-finding expectations falling to a series low, the second such low in six months, while job-loss expectations worsened.

Expectations for household income growth and spending, however, remained largely unchanged.



News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Edge Higher
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in each of the previous two months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. In contrast, three- and five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting stable longer-term inflation views. Inflation uncertainty increased across all horizons, indicating growing dispersion in expectations about future price outcomes. Meanwhile, median year-ahead price expectations declined across major household categories, including gas, food, medical care, college education, and rent. The survey also pointed to softening labor market sentiment, with job-finding expectations falling to a series low, the second such low in six months, while job-loss expectations worsened. Expectations for household income growth and spending, however, remained largely unchanged.
2026-01-08
US Inflation Expectations Remain Steady
Median inflation expectations in the US held steady in November 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Economic Expectations. The one-year-ahead median inflation expectation remained at 3.2%, while the three- and five-year-ahead horizons stayed at 3.0%. Median inflation uncertainty, reflecting the range of opinions on future inflation, was unchanged for the one- and three-year horizons and declined at the five-year horizon. Expectations for median home price growth remained unchanged at 3.0% for the sixth consecutive month. Year-ahead median expectations for commodity prices, however, showed notable increases: food rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.9%, gas climbed 0.6 points to 4.1%, medical care surged 0.7 points to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased 0.2 points to 8.4%, and rent jumped 1.1 points to 8.3%.
2025-12-08
US Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly in October
Median inflation expectations in the United States fell to 3.2% for the one-year horizon in October 2025, down from 3.4% in September, which had marked a five-month high. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting longer-term views remain stable. Home price growth expectations held steady at 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, year-ahead commodity price expectations declined, dropping 0.7 percentage points for gas to 3.5% and 0.1 percentage point for food to 5.7%. In contrast, expectations for certain key expenses moved higher. Respondents projected college education costs to rise 8.2% (+1.2 pp), medical care costs to increase 9.4% (+0.1 pp, the highest since February 2023), and rent to climb 7.2% (+0.2 pp).
2025-11-07