US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 24-1/2-year High

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 5.35%, the highest since April 2002. Over the past 4 weeks, US 10 Year Note Bond Yield gained 54.90 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 119.40 basis points.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33% on Monday, near its highest level since March 2022 as investors assessed fresh economic data and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. The latest ISM report showed that services-sector activity continued to expand, with the PMI at 54.9 in September, slightly below August but broadly in line with expectations. At the same time, cost pressures intensified, highlighting renewed inflation risks despite the moderation in business activity. Bond markets have faced persistent selling pressure in recent weeks, although Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report pushed yields lower and reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate increase. Attention is now turning to Wednesday’s meeting minutes for further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Markets currently see an approximately 82% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.

The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 5.25% on Monday, while the 30-year yield slipped toward 5.6% as traders scaled back expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike following weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Data released Friday showed the US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below expectations of 90,000, after August’s gain was revised down to 133,000. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, while annual wage growth unexpectedly slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability that the Fed will keep policy unchanged this month, while expectations for a December hike remained around 69%. Still, Treasury yields remained near their highest levels in more than two decades amid concerns over persistent energy-driven inflation, rising US fiscal risks and increasing debt issuance linked to artificial intelligence.