Treasury Yields Scale 24-Year Highs

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to around 5.08% on Thursday, extending its recent decline as a global selloff in technology and AI stocks boosted safe-haven demand for government bonds. The recent selloff in US Treasuries, which had pushed yields to multi-decade highs, also eased as investors stepped in to buy the dip. Meanwhile, markets turned their attention to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. Recent economic data also pointed to signs of a slowdown in the US economy, with September housing starts declining and pending home sales falling to a record low. At the same time, Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks last Friday did little to alter expectations for a rate hold, although markets continued to price in a potential rate hike in December amid persistent energy-driven inflation. Elsewhere, oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, adding to inflationary concerns.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady at around 5.1% on Wednesday as investors continued to assess the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy decision next week. Markets are pricing in an approximately 85% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December stand at around 75%. Oil prices were up on Wednesday following fresh missile strikes targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi energy facilities. Housing data released this week pointed to mortgage rates weighing on demand, while CPI and PPI reports published last week signaled mounting inflationary pressures. Treasury yields had surged to multi-decade highs earlier this month amid a global bond selloff, driven by persistent energy-related inflation, mounting government debt, and deteriorating fiscal conditions across major economies.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady near 5.12% on Wednesday, recovering from the previous session’s decline as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of further interest rate hikes. Oil prices resumed their upward momentum after a diplomat dismissed reports that an agreement to end the US-Iran conflict was imminent, while confirming that negotiations remain ongoing. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, although markets are pricing in a possible rate hike in December. Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs earlier this month amid a global bond selloff, driven by persistent energy-related inflation pressures, mounting government debt, and deteriorating fiscal conditions across major economies.