US 10-Year Yield Rises to 3-Year High

2026-09-09 11:36 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose past 4.8% on Wednesday, the highest since October of 2023, as higher energy prices supported the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

The US reportedly struck multiple Iranian tankers and Iranian forces continued to attack US forces in the Middle East, escalating the ongoing war and prolonging the likely suspension of fuel from the region.

Higher fuel prices had already impacted gauges of underlying inflation.

This drove multiple FOMC members to call for higher interest rates to combat the threat of price growth, including Chairman Warsh, who noted that a rate hike is warranted if inflation increases further.

Meanwhile, estimates that AI companies raised $1.5 trillion in debt this year limited primary dealers' allocation for government securities, also lifting yields.

Treasuries were pressured across the curve despite Secretary Bessent's warning against shorting bonds ahead of his buyback announcement.



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US 10-Year Yield Rises to 3-Year High After Buyback
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.85% on Wednesday, the highest since October of 2023, after the Treasury Department tripled the buyback on notes and bonds to take place tomorrow. The department will purchase $6 billion in off-the-run securities, compared with Secretary Bessent's earlier announcement that buybacks would at least double to $4 billion, among the multiple moves by Washington to supress long-maturity yields. Yields in the long-end of the curve have surged this year as high oil prices due to the war in Iran raised underlying inflation, risking a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings. This was magnified by record-setting bond supply from corporate debt, with AI companies issuing north of $1.5 trillion in new issuance. On top of that, pressure on the Japanese yen drove Tokyo to repeatedly sell Treasury securities to defend the currency.
2026-09-09
US 10-Year Yield Rises to 3-Year High
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose past 4.8% on Wednesday, the highest since October of 2023, as higher energy prices supported the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. The US reportedly struck multiple Iranian tankers and Iranian forces continued to attack US forces in the Middle East, escalating the ongoing war and prolonging the likely suspension of fuel from the region. Higher fuel prices had already impacted gauges of underlying inflation. This drove multiple FOMC members to call for higher interest rates to combat the threat of price growth, including Chairman Warsh, who noted that a rate hike is warranted if inflation increases further. Meanwhile, estimates that AI companies raised $1.5 trillion in debt this year limited primary dealers' allocation for government securities, also lifting yields. Treasuries were pressured across the curve despite Secretary Bessent's warning against shorting bonds ahead of his buyback announcement.
2026-09-09
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since 2023
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.8% on Tuesday, hovering at its highest level since October 2023. Traders looked ahead to a week packed with economic data that could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. The CPI and PPI reports due this week are expected to provide further clues on inflationary pressures, particularly those linked to rising energy costs. Headline inflation is expected to remain steady at 3.4%, while the core rate is forecast to slow slightly to 2.4%. Meanwhile, both headline and core producer prices are expected to accelerate, reaching 5.3% and 4.6%, respectively. Oil prices have also continued to rise amid ongoing strikes in the Middle East, exacerbating concerns over supply disruptions. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a 25bps rate hike by the Fed next week. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s three-year Treasury auction kicks off a busy stretch of government debt issuance.
2026-09-08