US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 19-month High

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 4.80%, the highest since January 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US 10 Year Note Bond Yield gained 11.30 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 52.90 basis points.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a fifth consecutive session to 4.79% on Tuesday, reaching a new high since January 2025, as rising oil prices add to inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the Fed will need to tighten monetary policy. In remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday, Fed Chair Warsh reiterated his commitment to bringing inflation down. Markets are now pricing in around a 68% chance of a 25 bps rate hike by the Fed this month, up sharply from around 40% last week. Still, some uncertainty remains over whether the central bank will raise borrowing costs, after leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at both its June and July meetings. Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to 5.28%, nearly returning to levels seen before Treasury Secretary Bessent jolted markets last month with a decision to at least double the size of the Treasury Department’s bond buybacks.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.78% on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since January 2025 as rising oil prices and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve strengthened expectations for a rate hike this month. Investors also braced for a busy economic calendar, with the latest US manufacturing and services activity data due later today, ahead of the highly anticipated August jobs report on Friday. Warsh said on Friday that the Fed will “have work to do” if policymakers lack the confidence they need that inflation is moving toward 2%. Markets are now pricing in a more than 65% chance of a September hike, up from around 36% before his remarks. Meanwhile, oil prices advanced for a second straight day after US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran responded with attacks on the UAE and Jordan. Higher energy costs are fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations for tighter Fed policy.