US 10-Year Yield Edges Higher

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to around 4.66% on Thursday, rising for a second consecutive session as stronger-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end. The PCE price index increased 0.2% month-on-month in July, above estimates of 0.1% and reversing a 0.1% decline in June, while annual inflation rose to 3.7% versus forecasts of 3.6%. Investors now await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for further clues, although he is not expected to offer a clear signal on the central bank’s policy decision in September. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the Treasury’s plan to at least double its buybacks, with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller arguing that the move undermines the Treasury market’s credibility and fails to deliver an opportunity for meaningful debt reform.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note edged up to 4.65% on Wednesday as investors assessed fresh economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. The PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, above expectations for a 0.1% increase, while annual inflation reached 3.7% versus forecasts of 3.6%. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, both in line with expectations. Consumer spending and income also came in slightly above forecasts. Separate data showed US GDP grew 1.5% in Q2 as initially estimated, while durable goods orders rose 1.1% in July, beating expectations of 0.5%. Gains in Treasury yields were capped by a third consecutive decline in oil prices, easing concerns over near-term inflation. Meanwhile, investors continued to debate the Treasury’s plan to at least double its buybacks, with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller arguing the move undermines the Treasury market’s credibility and misses an opportunity for meaningful debt reform.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.64% on Wednesday after dropping nearly 10 basis points in the previous session, as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and investors continued to assess the implications of the Treasury Department’s expanded debt buybacks. Oil prices declined for a third consecutive session, reducing concerns over near-term inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, market participants continued to debate the Treasury’s plan to at least double its buybacks, with investor Stanley Druckenmiller arguing that the move is undermining the Treasury market’s credibility and wasting an opportunity for meaningful debt reform. Elsewhere, investors awaited the latest US PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The data comes ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, where he is not expected to provide clear guidance on the central bank’s policy decision in September.