US 10-Year Yield Eases from 18-Month High

2026-08-04 15:57 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.65% on Tuesday from the 18-month high of 4.75% in the previous session as lower energy prices softened risks of higher inflation and a hawkish reaction by the Federal Reserve.

Qatari authorities stated that the US and Iran were close to signing a short-term agreement that would pause the conflict, followed by US Treasury Secretary Bessent noting that a deal could be announced imminently.

The developments drove fuel and natural gas prices to extend their declines, limiting risks that energy-driven inflation would continue to lift underlying consumer prices as observed in data from the second quarter.

Rate traders trimmed positions reflecting a hike in the Federal Reserve's next meeting, although the move remained in slight consensus.

Still, yields remained above levels prior to the Fed's rate hold last week, when Chair Warsh's reluctance to confirm a rate hike as his preferred tool against higher prices raised inflationary concerns.



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US 10-Year Yield Eases from 18-Month High
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.65% on Tuesday from the 18-month high of 4.75% in the previous session as lower energy prices softened risks of higher inflation and a hawkish reaction by the Federal Reserve. Qatari authorities stated that the US and Iran were close to signing a short-term agreement that would pause the conflict, followed by US Treasury Secretary Bessent noting that a deal could be announced imminently. The developments drove fuel and natural gas prices to extend their declines, limiting risks that energy-driven inflation would continue to lift underlying consumer prices as observed in data from the second quarter. Rate traders trimmed positions reflecting a hike in the Federal Reserve's next meeting, although the move remained in slight consensus. Still, yields remained above levels prior to the Fed's rate hold last week, when Chair Warsh's reluctance to confirm a rate hike as his preferred tool against higher prices raised inflationary concerns.
2026-08-04
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Steadies
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.69% on Tuesday as investors continued to evaluate the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East. Markets are currently pricing in about a 65% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September after the central bank left interest rates unchanged in July. However, three policymakers dissented from the decision, while Chair Kevin Warsh offered little forward guidance on the path of interest rates. Meanwhile, Bank of New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy remains well positioned, adding that inflation is expected to ease during the second half of the year. Investors are now awaiting the latest JOLTS job openings report and international trade data due later today for further clues on the strength of the US economy.
2026-08-04
Treasury Yields Fall
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.68% on Monday, supported by lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns as hopes grew that tensions in the Middle East could ease. US President Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon and canceled a planned attack on the country. Investors are also awaiting a fresh batch of US economic data this week, including the closely watched employment report, for further clues on the strength of the labor market. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, although three policymakers dissented. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 63% probability of a 25bps rate hike in September, down from around 80% before the policy decision, as Chair Kevin Warsh provided little forward guidance on the outlook for interest rates. Separately, reports indicated that Warsh is considering reducing the number of Federal Reserve policy meetings from the current eight per year.
2026-08-03