US 10-Year Yield Set for Weekly Fall

2026-07-31 02:46 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.65% on Friday and was on track to finish the week lower as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance.

The central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday despite mounting inflationary pressures stemming from renewed hostilities in the Middle East, although three FOMC members voted in favor of a rate hike.

While Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and emphasized that policymakers would act if needed, he did not support an immediate increase and stopped short of providing clear forward guidance.

Even so, markets are currently pricing in about a 63% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained elevated after the US military launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on US assets across the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of any near-term diplomatic agreement.



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US 10-Year Yield Set for Weekly Fall
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.65% on Friday and was on track to finish the week lower as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance. The central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday despite mounting inflationary pressures stemming from renewed hostilities in the Middle East, although three FOMC members voted in favor of a rate hike. While Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and emphasized that policymakers would act if needed, he did not support an immediate increase and stopped short of providing clear forward guidance. Even so, markets are currently pricing in about a 63% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained elevated after the US military launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on US assets across the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of any near-term diplomatic agreement.
2026-07-31
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Continues to Rise
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.69% on Thursday, extending the previous session's 7bps increase and returning to its highest level since January 2025. Meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond surged to 5.23%, its highest level in 19 years, as investors continued to assess the latest FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's press conference. As expected, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged but three FOMC members voted in favor of a rate hike. While Chair Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation under control and stressed that policymakers would not hesitate to act if necessary, he was not among those advocating an immediate increase and refrained from offering clear forward guidance, leaving investors viewing the central bank as merely postponing what they see as an inevitable rate hike. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September has fallen to around 63%, down from nearly 80% before the Fed's decision.
2026-07-30
US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.68% on Thursday after climbing nearly 10 basis points in the previous session, as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, though three FOMC members dissented in favor of a rate hike. Chair Kevin Warsh also stressed that the decision to keep rates steady should not be viewed as a sign of policy inertia, adding that markets would continue to chart their course based on incoming economic data. In the Middle East, the US was reportedly carrying out fresh air strikes on Iran following attacks on American forces in the region. Meanwhile, both sides remained unable to reach a potential agreement as Tehran insisted on maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving investors concerned about inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Elsewhere, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week.
2026-07-30