US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 8-week High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose for a third consecutive session to 4.64% on Wednesday, reaching a fresh two-month high, as persistent hostilities in the Middle East continued to drive oil prices higher. Both the US and Iran signaled that a resumption of peace talks is unlikely in the near term despite ongoing mediation efforts. The rise in oil prices kept fears of renewed inflationary pressures elevated, although both the June CPI and PPI reports came in softer than expected last week. Meanwhile, investors await next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, with policymakers now in their customary pre-meeting blackout period. The Fed is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. However, markets continue to price in the possibility of policy tightening later this year, with traders assigning roughly a 61% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 4.65%, the highest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, US 10 Year Note Bond Yield gained 14.70 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 26.10 basis points.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.63% on Wednesday, hovering at two-month highs as ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran lifted oil prices, heightening concerns over inflation and interest rates. President Donald Trump also downplayed the likelihood of near-term talks with Iran, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupted shipping through the Red Sea. Meanwhile, a series of attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal along Russia’s Black Sea coast added to supply concerns. On the economic front, ADP data showed US private employers added an average of 16,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending July 4, down from an average weekly gain of 19,250 in the prior four-week period, marking a fourth straight slowdown in hiring. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, while pricing in more than a 55% chance of a rate hike in September.