Treasury Yields Higher on Monday

2026-07-20 13:56 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.60% on Monday, after declining about 7bps the previous week, as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for the economic and monetary policy outlook.

Tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend, sending oil prices to six-week highs before they pared most of their gains following comments from Iran's foreign ministry indicating that negotiations with the US could continue if the country's national interests are respected.

Last week, both CPI and PPI reports came in softer than expected, but the recent surge in oil prices has raised concerns that the disinflation trend could stall.

Markets continue to price in one Fed rate hike this year, with the probability of a September move remaining above 60%.

Meanwhile, Fed officials have entered the blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.



News Stream
US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.6% on Tuesday after rising about 5 basis points in the previous session, as ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes. US attacks on Iran continued for a tenth straight day, with President Donald Trump warning that Tehran would be held responsible for the deaths of three US service members. Iran-backed Houthi militants also announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over energy shipments through the Red Sea. However, Iran said mediators had presented proposals to ease tensions with the US after several days of hostilities. Markets now price in about a 55% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, up from 51% a day earlier. Meanwhile, Fed officials have entered the blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged.
2026-07-21
Treasury Yields Higher on Monday
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.60% on Monday, after declining about 7bps the previous week, as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for the economic and monetary policy outlook. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend, sending oil prices to six-week highs before they pared most of their gains following comments from Iran's foreign ministry indicating that negotiations with the US could continue if the country's national interests are respected. Last week, both CPI and PPI reports came in softer than expected, but the recent surge in oil prices has raised concerns that the disinflation trend could stall. Markets continue to price in one Fed rate hike this year, with the probability of a September move remaining above 60%. Meanwhile, Fed officials have entered the blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
2026-07-20
US 10-Year Yield Rises on Middle East Risks
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to around 4.57% on Monday, recovering from last week's losses as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher and fueled concerns over inflation and potential interest rate hikes. The US military carried out fresh airstrikes against Iran after three American service members were killed, while Tehran declared that its ceasefire with the US had effectively collapsed and said it intercepted four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Friday joined a growing chorus of Fed officials warning about persistent inflation. Markets are now pricing in around a 53% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, up from 47% a day earlier, though the central bank is still widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this month's meeting.
2026-07-20