US 10Y Yield Rises on Fresh US-Iran Strikes

2026-07-13 02:26 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.59% on Monday, hovering near seven-week highs as renewed missile strikes between the US and Iran drove oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of interest-rate hikes to contain inflation.

The US carried out its fourth strike in a week against Iran on Sunday in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship.

Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

Markets currently expect the Fed to deliver one more interest-rate hike before the end of the year.

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released last week, showed that a few policymakers saw a case for raising rates, though they ultimately supported keeping policy unchanged.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to make his first appearance before the US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.



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US 10Y Yield Rises on Fresh US-Iran Strikes
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.59% on Monday, hovering near seven-week highs as renewed missile strikes between the US and Iran drove oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of interest-rate hikes to contain inflation. The US carried out its fourth strike in a week against Iran on Sunday in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Markets currently expect the Fed to deliver one more interest-rate hike before the end of the year. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, released last week, showed that a few policymakers saw a case for raising rates, though they ultimately supported keeping policy unchanged. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to make his first appearance before the US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
2026-07-13
US 10-Year Yield Slips for Second Session
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.54% on Friday, marking a second consecutive session of declines as lower oil prices helped ease inflation concerns and reduced fears of aggressive policy tightening. The move followed reports that the US and Iran will continue peace negotiations despite a recent escalation in hostilities. Even so, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once this year. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that, among the factors driving inflation in the US, he is most focused on demand fueled by artificial intelligence. Separately, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced the leadership of five task forces to review the US central bank’s approach to key areas of policymaking, signaling potential changes in how the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy.
2026-07-10
Treasury Yields Edge Down After Spike
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged down to 4.56% on Thursday, after climbing about 10bps over the previous two sessions to its highest level in roughly two months. Escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled a sharp rise in oil prices, as the US and Iran exchanged strikes. The developments also stoked concerns about another bout of inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates higher for longer. On the data front, the latest jobless claims report continued to point to a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, minutes from the FOMC's June meeting showed that only a few policymakers favored a rate hike, although officials expressed growing concern about inflationary pressures. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike by the end of 2026, while the probability of a move at the September meeting currently stands at around 64%.
2026-07-09