US 10Y Yield Holds Near 8-Month High

2026-03-30 02:45 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.4% on Monday but remained near its highest levels since July 2025, as investors weighed the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation, growth, and interest rates.

Tensions intensified after Trump said he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize its export hub on Kharg Island, echoing the US military operation in Venezuela earlier this year.

The US is also reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran after additional troops arrived in the region.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joined the conflict after targeting Israel over the weekend.

Surging oil prices from the Iran war bolstered hawkish bets on Federal Reserve policy, with markets speculating on a possible rate increase this year.

Investors now look ahead to key US jobs data this week, including the JOLTS and ADP private payrolls reports.

The March jobs report will also be released on Friday despite a holiday.



News Stream
US 10Y Yield Holds Near 8-Month High
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.4% on Monday but remained near its highest levels since July 2025, as investors weighed the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation, growth, and interest rates. Tensions intensified after Trump said he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize its export hub on Kharg Island, echoing the US military operation in Venezuela earlier this year. The US is also reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran after additional troops arrived in the region. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joined the conflict after targeting Israel over the weekend. Surging oil prices from the Iran war bolstered hawkish bets on Federal Reserve policy, with markets speculating on a possible rate increase this year. Investors now look ahead to key US jobs data this week, including the JOLTS and ADP private payrolls reports. The March jobs report will also be released on Friday despite a holiday.
2026-03-30
10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 8-Month High
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to as high as 4.48% on Friday, its highest level since July 2025, before retreating to 4.42%. Traders remain concerned about the impact of the war with Iran on both inflation and economic growth, as prospects for de-escalation remain uncertain and oil prices continue to surge. Oil is trading close to its 2022 highs, with markets bracing for the conflict to extend into April as attacks persist across the Middle East. This comes despite US President Trump’s announcement of a 10-day pause on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, through April 6, aimed at allowing more time for negotiations. However, some investors fear this window could also be used by the US to build up additional forces in the region. Meanwhile, traders have scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, although the central bank still sees one 25bps cut in 2026.
2026-03-27
US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.41% on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, supported by heightened uncertainties over the Middle East conflict and its effects on oil prices, inflation, and economic growth. Recent reports indicate the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region, providing the White House with more leverage in negotiations. Meanwhile, President Trump extended the deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days and noted that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a “present” to the US. Conflict-related disruptions have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation fears and reinforcing hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now price in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of two rate cuts this year.
2026-03-27