US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.41% on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, supported by heightened uncertainties over the Middle East conflict and its effects on oil prices, inflation, and economic growth. Recent reports indicate the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region, providing the White House with more leverage in negotiations. Meanwhile, President Trump extended the deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days and noted that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a “present” to the US. Conflict-related disruptions have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation fears and reinforcing hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now price in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of two rate cuts this year.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose further to 4.39% on Thursday, hitting the highest since July, as mounting doubts over a near-term end to the war with Iran weighed on sentiment. President Donald Trump said he would not commit to a deal to end the conflict while Tehran shows little willingness to compromise. Disruptions linked to the conflict have pushed energy prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates steady throughout the year. On the data front, initial jobless claims edged up slightly to 210K, while continuing claims fell to a near two-year low. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note which is more sensitive to short-term Fed policy expectations, rose sharply by nearly 60 basis points to 3.96%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 5 basis points to around 4.38% on Thursday as investors monitored developments in the Middle East amid heightened uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war. The White House maintained that talks are ongoing, with the Trump administration reportedly sending a 15-point plan to Iran via Pakistan aimed at resolving the conflict. Top Iranian authorities are reviewing the proposal but indicated no intention of holding talks with Washington. Tehran said it would reject a US ceasefire offer, instead countering with a five-point plan granting it control over the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions from the conflict have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady throughout the year. Investors now turn to the latest weekly jobless claims data on Thursday for fresh signals on labor market conditions.