Dollar Set for Weekly Fall

2026-07-17 01:21 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The dollar index steadied around 100.7 on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline, as softer-than-expected US inflation prompted traders to scale back expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, although the escalating conflict between the US and Iran continued to fuel inflation concerns.

The US launched multiple strikes against Iran this week, while Tehran retaliated by targeting US bases in neighboring countries.

Economic data released earlier this week showed US consumer inflation increased less than expected in June, while producer prices unexpectedly fell.

Retail sales also rose in line with forecasts, as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at fuel stations, while spending at motor vehicle dealers and online retailers remained strong.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to a two-month low of 208K.

Markets have now largely ruled out a Fed rate hike this month, though expectations remain split over the possibility of a move in September.



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Dollar Set for Weekly Fall
The dollar index steadied around 100.7 on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline, as softer-than-expected US inflation prompted traders to scale back expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, although the escalating conflict between the US and Iran continued to fuel inflation concerns. The US launched multiple strikes against Iran this week, while Tehran retaliated by targeting US bases in neighboring countries. Economic data released earlier this week showed US consumer inflation increased less than expected in June, while producer prices unexpectedly fell. Retail sales also rose in line with forecasts, as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at fuel stations, while spending at motor vehicle dealers and online retailers remained strong. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to a two-month low of 208K. Markets have now largely ruled out a Fed rate hike this month, though expectations remain split over the possibility of a move in September.
2026-07-17
Dollar Rebounds
The dollar index strengthened to 100.6 on Thursday, rebounding after losses in each of the previous two sessions, as investors assessed fresh economic data pointing to continued resilience in the US economy. Retail sales rose in line with expectations, with lower gasoline prices weighing on receipts at gas stations, while sales at motor vehicle dealers and nonstore retailers were robust. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 208K. Markets also continued to monitor developments in the Middle East, with oil prices hovering near one-month highs after the US intensified its strikes against Iran. Against this backdrop, markets are currently pricing in around a 12% probability of a rate hike by the Fed this month, while the odds of a hike in September stand at roughly 56%. The greenback was mostly higher against the British pound and the euro.
2026-07-16
Dollar Holds Decline on Soft PPI
The dollar index traded around 100.5 on Thursday after posting sharp losses over the previous two sessions, as easing inflation pressures reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Data released on Wednesday showed US producer prices unexpectedly fell in June for the first time in nearly a year, largely due to lower energy costs, following Tuesday’s softer-than-expected consumer inflation report. Markets trimmed expectations for a Fed rate increase in September, with the implied probability falling to around 44% from 50% a day earlier. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor escalating attacks in the Middle East after the US launched additional strikes against Iranian targets. The renewed conflict pushed oil prices sharply higher this week, fueling fresh concerns over inflation and the interest rate outlook. Still, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Tehran had indicated a willingness to resume negotiations.
2026-07-16