US Core Inflation Rate Slightly Below Forecasts

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.5% in February 2026, the lowest since March 2021, unchanged from January and matching forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased 3% over the last year, the same pace as in January. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.4%), household furnishings and operations (+3.9%), recreation (+2.3%), and personal care (+4.5%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase in the prior month, also in line with the market consensus.

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, edged down to 2.5% in January 2026, the lowest since March 2021, from 2.6% in the prior month. Figures came in line with market forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased 3%, down from December's 3.2%. Other indexes registered slower price- growth including recreation (2.5% vs 3%) and household furnishings and operations (3.9% vs 4%). Medical care inflation was unchanged at 3.2%, whereas personal care accelerated to 5.4% from 3.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.3%, picking up from the 0.2% increase in the previous month and in line with market expectations.

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, stood at 2.6% in December 2025, the lowest since March 2021, matching November's reading. Figures came slightly below market expectations of 2.7%. Prices slowed mostly for used cars and trucks (1.6% vs 3.6% in November) and household furnishings and operations (4% vs 4.6%). Meanwhile, the heavyweight shelter index increased 3.2%, after a 3% rise in the prior month. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (3.2% vs 2.9%), recreation (3% vs 1.8%), and personal care (3.7% vs 3.3%).