US Core Inflation Rate Below Forecasts

2025-03-12 12:35 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes items such as food and energy, eased to 3.1% in February 2025, from 3.3% in the prior month and below market expectations of 3.2%.

It is the lowest figure since April 2021.

The shelter index, accounting for over two thirds of the total 12-month increase, rose 4.2% over the last year, the least since December 2021, and down from 4.4% in January.

Other indexes saw also increases including motor vehicle insurance (+11.1%), medical care (+2.9%), recreation (+1.8%), and education (+3.7%).

On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% from the previous month in February from the 10-month high of 0.4% in the previous month, below market expectations of a 0.3% increase.



News Stream
US Core Inflation Matches Forecasts at 2.5%
The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July 2026, the lowest in five months, matching market forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased by 3.2% over the last year, down from 3.3% in June. Other indexes with slower price increases include airline fares (+25.5% vs 26.5%), medical care (+1.7% vs 2%), recreation (+2.6% vs 2.8%), and household furnishings and operations (+2.2% vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July, after being flat in the prior month and in line with market expectations.
2026-08-12
US Core Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, fell to 2.6% in June 2026 from a seven-month high of 2.9% in May and below the expected 2.8%. The slowdown was driven by a modest easing in shelter costs (3.3% vs 3.4% in May) and softer price increases for other categories including airline fares (26.5% vs 27%), apparel (3.9% vs 4.8%); medical care (2% vs 2.6%) and household furnishings and operations (2.5% vs 3%). Month-over-month, core consumer prices were flat, after a 0.2% increase in May and undershooting market estimates of a 0.2% rise.
2026-07-14
US Core Inflation Hits Seven-Month High
The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, climbed to 2.9% year-over-year in May 2026, matching market forecasts and reaching its highest level since September 2025. Key drivers included shelter (+3.4%), transportation services (+4.1%), medical care services (+3.6%), and apparel (+4.8%), while used cars and trucks (-2.0%) and medical care commodities (-1.8%) declined. Month-over-month, core consumer prices rose 0.2% in May, following a 0.4% increase in April, slightly below expectations of 0.3%.
2026-06-10