US Consumer Sentiment Falls as Inflation Expectations Rise

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 in early September 2026, down for a second consecutive month and well below market expectations of 51.0, according to the preliminary estimate. It was the weakest reading since May’s record low. Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and business conditions also deteriorated, as consumers anticipate greater pressure on household budgets amid rising fuel prices and trade tensions. Five-year business expectations were broadly stable but remained well below their historical average, suggesting consumers do not expect current risks to significantly worsen the longer-term outlook. Overall sentiment is now 16% below February levels, before the start of the Iran conflict, and 13% below a year ago. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%, the highest since June, while five-year expectations edged up to 3.4% after holding at 3.3% for three consecutive months.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was revised higher to 51.7 in August 2026, from a preliminary reading of 51.0. Despite the upward revision, sentiment fell about 6% from July and remained roughly 11% below its year-ago level, reflecting persistent concerns that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Sentiment declined across all political groups, particularly among Republicans, while older, lower- and middle-income consumers and those without stock holdings saw sharper deterioration. Ongoing policy uncertainty, including the Iran conflict, has also fueled expectations of further gasoline price increases. Consumers are increasingly concerned about weakening economic conditions, with one-year business expectations falling 10% and the five-year outlook dropping 13%. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.0% from 4.2%, while long-run expectations held steady at 3.3% for a third consecutive month.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in early August 2026, down from 55.2 in July and below market expectations of 54.5, ending two consecutive months of improvement. Both major components weakened, with the current conditions index declining to 51.8 and the expectations measure falling to 50.6. The deterioration was broad-based across political and demographic groups, with particularly sharp declines among older, lower-income and less-educated consumers, who are more exposed to rising prices. Expectations for business conditions also worsened significantly, falling 11% over the next year and 17% over the longer term. Inflation concerns increased slightly, with year-ahead expectations rising to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the long-term outlook remained unchanged at 3.3%. Only 8% of consumers now expect their incomes to grow faster than inflation, down from 18% in December 2024.