Chicago PMI Rises to Near 4-Year High

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 57.6 in July 2026 from 56.7 in the previous month, remaining in expansionary territory for a third straight month and topping market expectations of 56.0. The increase was driven by new orders, which climbed to their highest level since January 2022. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries weakened, while order backlogs slipped back into contraction after two months above the neutral 50 mark. Employment remained in contraction for a fifth consecutive month, falling to its lowest level since March, while production eased but stayed in expansion. Prices paid was little changed, as respondents continued to cite geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs despite signs of improving price stability.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 56.7 in June 2026 from 62.7 in the previous month. The decline was driven by weaker new orders, which remained in expansion for a second consecutive month, and slowing production that nearly reversed the previous month's gain. The downturn was partly offset by increases in supplier deliveries, reflecting longer lead times linked to the Middle East conflict, as well as gains in order backlogs and employment. Meanwhile, prices paid edged higher, driven by rising oil and metal prices.

The Chicago Business Barometer surged to 62.7 in May of 2026 from 49.2 in the previous month, the highest in over four years. The sharp recovery in the index reflected fresh traction in business activity, after the tight supply of energy due to the war in the Middle East lifted energy prices and dented consumers' purchasing power at the start of the second quarter.