Chicago PMI Rises to Near 4-Year High

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 57.7 in February of 2026 from 54 in the previous month, firmly above expectations that it would slow to 52.8, to capitulate as the second expansion since November of 2023 and reflect the sharpest pace of growth in activity in the United States since May of 2022.

The Chicago Business Barometer climbed to 54 in January 2026, up from 42.7 in the prior month and well above market estimates of 44. This marked a solid return to growth in Chicago's economic activity after 25 consecutive months of decline. Employment rose 17.5 points to its highest level since December 2024, while new orders surged 15.8 points to levels not seen since March 2022. Production, backlogs, and inventories rose, while supplier deliveries slowed and prices paid fell nine points to a one-year low.

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 43.5 in December 2025 from 36.3 in the prior month and above market estimates of 39.5. This was the 25th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024.