United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index  Forecast 2016-2020

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.13 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.26 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.05
United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - was last predicted on Monday, June 26, 2017.
United States Business Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 54.9 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 52
Services PMI 53 53 52.4 52.7 52.9 54.8
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.3 57.5 56.85 57.2 56.82
Manufacturing PMI 52.1 53 53.8 53 52.7 53
Composite Pmi 53 53 53.8 52 52.4 55.1
Industrial Production 2.2 1.5 2 3 2.4 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.4 1.8 2.1 2 1.89 1.9
Capacity Utilization 76.6 75.8 75.9 76 77.22 78
Durable Goods Orders -1.1 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.32 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.6 0.45 0.28 0.34 0.32 0.31
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.23 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.1 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26
New Orders 469030 473289 472187 471828 471721 471670
Factory Orders -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.28 0.2
Business Inventories -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0 0.2
Changes in Inventories 4.3 69.32 33.6 70.07 29.83 72.03
Wholesale Inventories -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.09 0.2
Bankruptcies 23591 23120 22994 22746 22761 22830
Corporate Profits 1571 1599 1574 1593 1579 1585
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104 104 101 95 94 97
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.8 5 9 8 7 5
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 27.6 26 12 9 8 6.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1 10 6 4 3 3
Ism New York Index 46.7 51.09 51.01 50.64 51.25 50.99
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 17.2 15 14.3 14 15 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.26 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.05
Chicago Pmi 59.4 57.4 55 54 53 58.65
Total Vehicle Sales 16.66 19 15 14 18 18.7
Car Production 3.48 3.92 3.86 3.61 3.89 4.04
Car Registrations 525 591 560 543 548 547
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.45 1.5 1 -0.5 0.21 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change 61 66.69 66.74 66.74 66.74 66.74
Gasoline Stocks Change -578 -26.8 27.89 27.89 27.89 27.89
Leading Economic Index 182 181 180 179 178 173
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.03 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.76
Steel Production 6995 6320 6400 6470 6932 7150
Mining Production 8.3 8.35 9.25 2 9.66 1
Corruption Index 74 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5
Corruption Rank 18 16 16 16 16 16
Competitiveness Index 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.73 5.69
Competitiveness Rank 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ease of Doing Business 8 7 7 7 6 6