US Home Price Growth Ticks Up but Remains Weak

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year over year in November 2025, slightly above October’s 1.3% gain and market expectations of 1.2%. While marking the first pickup in ten months, growth remains near a more than two-year low, underscoring a slower US housing market. Home price appreciation continued to lag consumer inflation, which eased to 2.7% in November. As a result, real home values effectively declined over the past year, with price growth trailing inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points. Chicago led major markets for a second straight month with a 5.7% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. In contrast, Tampa posted the steepest decline, down 3.9% and marking its 13th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, particularly in the Sun Belt, also recorded notable declines, led by Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%).

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.3% year over year in October 2025, easing from a 1.4% increase in September and coming in slightly above market expectations of a 1.1% gain. This represents the smallest annual increase since July 2023, reinforcing signs that the US housing market is settling into a much slower growth phase. Home price appreciation continues to trail consumer inflation. With October CPI estimated at around 3.1%, inflation-adjusted home values appear to have edged modestly lower over the past year. Regional data point to a pronounced geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. In contrast, Tampa recorded a 4.2% decline, the steepest among the 20 cities, and its 12th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, especially in the Sun Belt, are seeing the sharpest declines, led by Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%).

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year-over-year in September 2025, easing for the eighth straight month and marking the slowest pace of growth since July 2023. The result was in line with expectations and slightly softer than August’s 1.6% increase. Chicago reported the biggest gain (5.5%), followed by New York (5.2%) and Boston (4.1%), sustaining momentum even as broader market conditions soften. On the other hand, Tampa posted the lowest return (4.1%), followed by declines in Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%), highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges. "Current conditions suggest more persistent headwinds. With mortgage rates stubbornly elevated and affordability at multi-decade lows, the market appears to be settling into a new equilibrium of minimal price growth-or, in some regions, outright decline", said Nicholas Godec from S&P Dow Jones Indices.