US Home Price Growth Stays Subdued in December

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year over year in December 2025, matching November’s pace and market expectations. However, annual price growth remains close to its weakest level in more than two years, highlighting continued cooling in the US housing market. Home price gains also trailed consumer inflation, which stood at 2.7% in December. As a result, real home values effectively declined over the past year, with nominal price growth lagging inflation by about 1.3 percentage points. Chicago led major markets for a third straight month with a 5.3% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.1% and Cleveland at 4.0%. In contrast, Tampa posted the steepest decline, down 2.9% and marking its 14th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, particularly in the Sun Belt, also recorded notable declines, led by Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.5%).

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year over year in November 2025, slightly above October’s 1.3% gain and market expectations of 1.2%. While marking the first pickup in ten months, growth remains near a more than two-year low, underscoring a slower US housing market. Home price appreciation continued to lag consumer inflation, which eased to 2.7% in November. As a result, real home values effectively declined over the past year, with price growth trailing inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points. Chicago led major markets for a second straight month with a 5.7% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. In contrast, Tampa posted the steepest decline, down 3.9% and marking its 13th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, particularly in the Sun Belt, also recorded notable declines, led by Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%).

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.3% year over year in October 2025, easing from a 1.4% increase in September and coming in slightly above market expectations of a 1.1% gain. This represents the smallest annual increase since July 2023, reinforcing signs that the US housing market is settling into a much slower growth phase. Home price appreciation continues to trail consumer inflation. With October CPI estimated at around 3.1%, inflation-adjusted home values appear to have edged modestly lower over the past year. Regional data point to a pronounced geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. In contrast, Tampa recorded a 4.2% decline, the steepest among the 20 cities, and its 12th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, especially in the Sun Belt, are seeing the sharpest declines, led by Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%).