US Manufacturing Sector Growth Cools in June

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US fell to 53.3 in June 2026, down from 54.0 in May and below market expectations of 54. The latest reading indicated a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, as both output (52.2 vs. 54.3 in May) and new orders (56.0 vs. 56.8) grew at a slower pace. Employment remained in contraction territory, although the pace of job losses eased, with the employment index rising to 49.7 from 48.6. Meanwhile, the prices index declined sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, indicating some easing in cost pressures, though price growth remained elevated. Survey respondents continued to cite concerns over moderating but still high inflation, driven in part by the conflict in the Middle East. They also pointed to the risk of higher interest rates and ongoing policy uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs and global trade, as key headwinds for the manufacturing sector.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May 2026 from 52.7 in each of the previous two months and beating forecasts of 53. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in the factory sector since May 2022, with faster growth seen for new orders (56.8 vs 54.1), production (54.3 vs 53.4) and backlog of orders (52.2 vs 51.4). Also, employment contracted less (48.6 vs 46.4). Price pressures remained elevated but below the levels seen in April (82.1 vs 84.6). The Supplier Deliveries index stayed the same at 60.6. Meanwhile, the Customers’ Inventories Index remains in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a slower rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production. "Among comments, the Iran war was mentioned in 42 percent and tariffs in 18 percent; 57 percent of the panelists mentioned pricing volatility as an issue for their companies", according to Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US remained unchanged at 52.7 in April 2026, matching its highest level since August 2022 but falling short of market expectations for a rise to 53.0. New orders grew at a faster pace (54.1 vs. 53.5 in March), and supplier deliveries lengthened further (60.6 vs. 58.9), while production expanded at a slower rate (53.4 vs. 55.1), and employment levels declined at the sharpest pace in four months (46.4 vs. 48.7). Prices surged at the fastest rate since April 2022, driven by rising oil and diesel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. According to Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, sentiment among panelists remained mixed in the second month of the Iran War. While 31% of comments were positive, 69% were negative, a ratio of 1 to 2.2. The war was mentioned in 47% of responses, with tariffs referenced in 18%. Some panelists addressed both issues in a single comment, often with conflicting sentiment.