US Small Business Health Index - Forecast

Small Business Sentiment in the United States is expected to be 55.54 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Small Business Sentiment in the United States to stand at 53.92 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the US Small Business Health Index is projected to trend around 54.10 in 2020, according to our econometric models.


US Small Business Health Index
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United States Business Last Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 60.2 55 54 53 55 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.4 53.8 53 52.1 52.8 53
Services PMI 56.5 53.6 53.4 53.1 54 54.8
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.1 54 54.6 54 54.2 52
Composite Pmi 56.2 53.8 53.3 55.2 55.4 55.1
Industrial Production 3.5 3.5 3 2.9 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.7 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.23 1.9
Capacity Utilization 77.9 78.6 78.3 78.5 78.6 78
Durable Goods Orders -0.6 0.61 -0.3 0.35 0.34 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.5 0.64 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.33
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.3 0.33 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.7 0.35 0.3 0.28 0.27 0.27
New Orders 498174 498178 497715 497591 497556 497539
Factory Orders 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.29 0.29 0.2
Business Inventories 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.27 0.2
Changes in Inventories 13.86 19.5 69 17.73 16.35 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 23106 23013 22896 22926 22911 22907
Corporate Profits 1920 1935 1947 1959 1971 2088
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107 102 103 107 105 97
Ism New York Index 55 56.8 55 56 53.9 55.9
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 19.9 21 21 25 9.39 16
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 22.6 18 21 19 17 10
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 20 20 5 10 5.57 3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.15 0.15 0.9 0.7 0.12 0.05
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 36.5 31.4 27.9 20.1 34.15 12
Chicago Pmi 64.1 59 59.1 61 58 56
Car Production 2.7 2.87 3.97 2.91 2.91 4.04
Car Registrations 461 521 495 495 501 496
Total Vehicle Sales 17.47 17.23 19.4 17.28 17.28 18.7
Crude Oil Stocks Change -12.63 0.01 -2 0.06 0.06 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change 51 46.62 45.97 45.95 45.95 45.95
Gasoline Stocks Change -694 -500 1000 21.93 21.93 500
Leading Economic Index 123 123 123 123 123 123
Internet Speed 18748 22628 23553 24392 24867 29875
IP Addresses 128949703 129480480 129684171 129654649 129670238 129691461
API Crude Oil Stock Change -6.8 -0.17 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.3
Crude Oil Rigs 863 869 871 872 872 872
Corruption Index 75 74 74 75 75 76
Corruption Rank 16 17 16 16 16 16
Competitiveness Index 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.9 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2 3 3 2 2 3
Ease of Doing Business 6 7 6 7 7 6
Steel Production 7107 6882 6870 7040 7001 7150
Mining Production 12.6 12.5 11 9 11 4