5th District Manufacturing Halts Decline Streak

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index jumped by 10 points from the previous month to 13 in May of 2026, the highest since 2021, and well ahead of market expectations of 4. The result was aligned with broader signals of strength from manufacturing surveys in the US, despite the rise in energy prices and borrowing costs since March due to the war in the Middle East. The index measuring new orders surged (17 vs 8 in April), driving a rebound in shipments (16 vs -2). Meanwhile, prices paid rose at a slower magnitude (5.96 vs 6.4), driving firms to ease the increase on their charges (4.21 vs 4.73). Looking ahead, improvements are expected both for shipments (35 vs 21) and new orders (36 vs 26).

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index rose by 3 points from the previous month to 3 in April of 2026, contrasting with market expectations of a contraction in activity at -5 to reflect the first improvement since February of last year. The result was aligned with other leading indicators for the period as the goods producing sector is showing a degree of resilience to soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East. The gauge measuring new orders rose further (8 vs 4 in March), even though shipments held their slight drop (unchanged at -2). Meanwhile, local business conditions improved (10 vs -5), driving firms to halt the drop in their employment levels (0 vs -2). Prices paid for inputs rose further (6.4 vs 6.11), although prices charged slowed (4.73 vs 4.85). Looking ahead, the outlook slowed for shipments (21 vs 26) and new orders (26 vs 30).

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index rose by 10 points from the previous month to 0 in March of 2026, ahead of market expectations of a -5. The result reflected an unchanged level of manufacturing activity in the district, the first period without a contraction since February of the previous year despite pressure from the surge in energy prices since the outbreak of war in the Middle East during the month. Shipments contracted less (-2 vs -13 in February) amid a rebound in the volume of new orders (4 vs -9). Likewise, the pace of staff reduction fell sharply (-2 vs -7), although wage growth eased (14 vs 18) despite remaining sharp. In the meantime, prices paid decelerated (6.11 vs 6.52) despite the surge in wholesale energy commodities. Looking ahead, shipments (26 vs 29) and new orders growth (30 vs 35) eased but remained strong.