United States Retail Sales YoY  Forecast 2016-2020

Retail Sales YoY in the United States is expected to be 3.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in the United States to stand at 3.89 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.89 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Retail Sales YoY
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Retail Sales YoY 3.8 3 3.1 3.89 3.89 3.89 percent
United States Retail Sales YoY Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Retail Sales YoY using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Retail Sales YoY - was last predicted on Monday, June 26, 2017.
United States Consumer Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 94.5 2.6 95 94 94 86.7
Retail Sales MoM -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.28 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 3.8 3 3.1 3.89 3.89 3.89
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Consumer Spending 11688 11745 11796 11832 11877 12209
Disposable Personal Income 14432 14519 14628 14739 14849 16054
Personal Spending 0.4 0.1 0.31 0.4 0.31 0.5
Personal Income 0.4 0.32 0.31 0.6 0.31 0.31
Personal Savings 5.3 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
Consumer Credit 8.2 15.64 16.05 16.09 16.12 16.12
Private Sector Credit 9221 9253 9333 9409 9481 10068
Bank Lending Rate 4 4 3.89 4.25 3.91 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 51.3 50.9 50.53 50.24 50.13 50.05
Redbook Index 2.8 2.51 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49
Gasoline Prices 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 79.5 79.5 79.5 80 79.7 82.6
Chain Store Sales 4254 5072 4760 4821 4808 4810