US Producer Prices Seen Rising 0.5%, Annual Rate to Accelerate

US producer prices are expected to increase by 0.5% month-on-month in April 2026, matching the pace recorded in both February and March, as energy costs continue to face upward pressure amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. Core producer prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise 0.3%, following a more modest 0.1% increase in the previous month. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate sharply to 4.9%, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest level since January 2023, up from 4.0% in March. At the same time, the annual core producer inflation rate is expected to climb to 4.3% from 3.8% in both February and March, which would represent its highest reading since February 2023.

US producer prices increased by 0.5% month-over-month in March 2026, matching the previous period’s growth and falling short of market expectations of 1.1%. Goods prices surged 1.6%, the largest increase since August 2023, fueled by an 8.5% jump in energy costs, largely attributed to the ongoing Iran conflict. Meanwhile, final demand food prices declined by 0.3%. On the services side, prices remained unchanged after a 0.3% increase in February. Within this category, a 1.3% rise in transportation and warehousing costs, along with a 0.1% uptick in other final demand services, offset a 0.3% decline in trade service margins. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 4%, the largest increase since February 2023 but still below the expected 4.6%. The core index, excluding food, energy, and trade services, edged up 0.2% month-over-month, slower than the 0.5% gains seen in both January and February, and climbed 3.6% year-over-year.

US producer prices are expected to rise by 1.1% month-on-month in March 2026, marking the largest increase since March 2022, driven primarily by a surge in energy prices due to the conflict with Iran. This compares with a 0.7% gain in February. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to increase by 0.5%, unchanged from the previous month, suggesting that the oil-driven price spike has not yet broadly filtered through the economy. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate to 4.6%, the highest level since February 2023, up from 3.4% in February. Meanwhile, the annual core rate is expected to edge up for a fourth consecutive month to 4.1%, also marking its highest level since February 2023.