US Producer Inflation Seen Slowing in January

US producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in January 2026, after a 0.5% increase in December. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to increase by 0.3%, compared with a 0.7% jump in the previous month. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to ease to 2.6% which would be the lowest in seven months, from 3% in both December and November. Core producer inflation is expected to edge down to 3% from 3.3%. Investors will be watching the release closely for signs of tariff-related price pressures, though the data are likely to continue to suggest that such effects remain limited for now.

US producer prices rose 0.5% mom in December 2025, the largest gain in three months, accelerating from a 0.2% increase in November and exceeding expectations of 0.2%. Services prices rebounded 0.5% after remaining flat in November, led by a 4.5% rise in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling. Goods prices were flat following a 0.8% rise in the previous month. Nonferrous metals surged 4.5%, while costs also rose for residential natural gas, motor vehicles, soft drinks, and aircraft and aircraft equipment. In contrast, diesel fuel fell 14.6%, with declines also seen in gasoline, jet fuel, beef and veal, and iron and steel scrap. Core PPI jumped 0.7%, the largest increase since July, after no change in November and above forecasts of 0.2%. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation held steady at 3%, above expectations for a slowdown to 2.7%, while core producer inflation accelerated to 3.3% from 3%, exceeding forecasts of 2.9%.

US producer prices are expected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month in December 2025, matching the pace seen in November. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to increase by 0.2%, compared with a flat reading in the previous month. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to ease to 2.7%, its lowest level in four months, from 3% in November, while core producer inflation is expected to edge down to 2.9% from 3%. Investors will be watching the release closely for signs of tariff-related price pressures, though the data are likely to continue to suggest that such effects remain limited for now.