US PPI Seen Slowing

US producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in February 2026, below 0.5% in January and the least in three months. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to increase by 0.3%, compared with a 0.8% jump in the previous month. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to remain at 2.9%, the same as in January. Core producer inflation is expected to edge up to 3.7%, which would be the highest reading since March last year, compared to 3.6% in January. Investors will be watching the release closely for signs of tariff-related price pressures, though the data are likely to continue to suggest that such effects remain limited for now.

US producer prices increased 0.5% mom in January 2026, following a downwardly revised 0.4% rise in December and above forecasts of 0.3%. Prices of services increased 0.8%, the most since July, led by a 14.4% jump in margins for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling. Prices also increased for apparel, footwear; chemicals; bundled wired telecommunications access services; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; and food and alcohol retailing. On the other hand, prices for goods were down 0.3%, the largest fall since March 2025, mainly due to a 5.5% drop in gasoline. Prices for chicken eggs, electric power, gas fuels, fresh fruits and melons, and ethanol also moved lower. Year-on-year, producer prices went up 2.9%, the least in three months, but above forecasts of 2.6%. Core producer prices jumped 0.8%, also the most in six months, compared to forecasts of 0.3%. Year-on-year, core producer prices rose 3.6%, well above forecasts of 3%.

US producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in January 2026, after a 0.5% increase in December. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to increase by 0.3%, compared with a 0.7% jump in the previous month. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to ease to 2.6% which would be the lowest in seven months, from 3% in both December and November. Core producer inflation is expected to edge down to 3% from 3.3%. Investors will be watching the release closely for signs of tariff-related price pressures, though the data are likely to continue to suggest that such effects remain limited for now.