US Producer Prices Unexpectedly Fall

US producer prices were unchanged in July 2026, following a revised 0.1% fall in June and compared with market expectations of a 0.2% gain. A 0.2% increase in the index for services and a 2.2% advance in prices for construction offset a 0.7% decrease in the index for goods. Services prices rose at a slower pace than in June (0.2% vs 0.5%), while portfolio management costs jumped 6.5%, contributing significantly to the increase. By contrast, transportation and warehousing services fell 1.8%. Goods prices declined for a second consecutive month (-0.7% vs -1.4%), largely due to a 3.1% drop in energy prices, including a 5.7% plunge in gasoline prices. Food prices also fell 0.9% (vs -0.5%), while prices for goods excluding food and energy edged up 0.1% (vs 0.2%). Year-on-year, producer prices increased 4.7%, well below 5.5% in June and forecasts of 4.9%. Meanwhile, core producer prices rose 0.2%, below forecasts of 0.3% and the annual core rate came in at 4.2%, in line with expectations.

US producer prices likely increased by 0.2% month-over-month in July 2026, following a 0.3% fall in June. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise by 0.3% in July, accelerating from the 0.2% increase recorded in June. On an annual basis, headline producer inflation is projected to slow to 4.9%, down from 5.5% in June and marking its highest level in four months. Meanwhile, annual core producer inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% from 4.7%, also reaching its lowest reading since March.

Producer prices in the US declined 0.3% mom in June 2026, following a downwardly revised 0.6% rise in May and below forecasts of a flat reading. It is the first decrease in PPI since August 2025 and the largest since April last year. Prices of goods went down 1.4%, the most since July 2022, led by a 12% slump in gasoline. Cost for diesel fuel, jet fuel, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), crude petroleum, and thermoplastic resins and materials also fell. Meanwhile, prices of services rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, with half of the gain coming from a 13% surge in margins for fuels and lubricants retailing. The indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; furniture retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear retailing; also rose. Year-on-year, producer prices increased 5.5%, well below 6% in May and forecasts of 6.2%. Meanwhile, core producer prices rose 0.2&%, below forecasts of 0.4% and the annual core rate came in at 4.7%, below expectations of 5.2%.