Philadelphia Factory Activity Rises to Five-Month High

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3 in February 2026, the highest since September and above expectations of 8.5. General business activity and new orders remained moderately strong, but shipments slowed sharply and nearly stalled. Employment levels were mostly steady, yet the employment index turned slightly negative and the average workweek shortened. Prices continued to rise overall, although both input costs and selling prices increased at a slower pace than before. Customer price sensitivity stayed largely unchanged, though about a third of firms said customers are becoming more sensitive to price. Many firms still expect industry costs to change soon, and most anticipate competitors will raise prices within three months. Tariffs were reported to have had a mostly negative impact over the past year, and many firms expect continued negative effects. Expectations for growth over the next six months strengthened, though planned capital spending declined.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged 21.4 points to 12.6 in January 2026, marking its highest level since September, as activity rebounded sharply from an upwardly revised -8.8 in December and far exceeded market expectations of -2. New orders rose to 14.4 and shipments increased to 9.5, signaling improved demand and deliveries, while inventories fell to -8.4, the lowest since July 2024. Employment remained positive at 9.7, though slightly lower than last month, and the average workweek edged down to 9.1. Input prices eased slightly, with the prices paid index dipping to 46.9, while the prices received index rose to 27.8, indicating ongoing cost pressures. Looking ahead, the future activity index slipped to 25.5, with future new orders falling to 32.9 and future shipments rising to 40.8. Firms continue to anticipate modest growth in employment and elevated prices over the next six months, reflecting cautious optimism amid sustained price pressures.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell 8.5 points to -10.2 in December 2025, down from -1.7 in November and below market expectations of -3.1. This marked the third consecutive month in negative territory, underscoring continued weakness in regional manufacturing. New orders rebounded 14 points to 5, reversing November’s contraction, while shipments rose 12 points to 3.2. Employment remained strong, with the employment index climbing to 12.9, the highest since May 2025, as firms reporting gains outnumbered those reporting declines. The average workweek increased 11 points to 14.7. The prices paid index fell 13 points to 43.6, its lowest in six months, while the prices received index rose 7 points to 24.3, largely offsetting last month’s decline. Looking ahead, the future activity index slipped 8 points to 41.6, its first drop since June, with future new orders down to 44.0 and future shipments declining to 43.2. Future price indexes eased slightly but remained elevated.