US Personal Income Unexpectedly Falls

US personal income fell by 0.1% month-over-month in February 2026, following a 0.4% increase in January and defying expectations of a 0.3% rise. This marked the first decline since May 2025, largely reflecting a $38.4 billion drop in personal dividend income and a $21.6 decline in current transfer receipts. This was partly offset by a $32.9 billion increase in compensation, including a $25.9 billion rise in wages and salaries and $6.9 billion rise in supplements to wages. There was also a $10.8 billion increase in farm proprietors’ income following a $9.8 billion payment to farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Disposable personal income fell by 0.1%, after increasing by 0.9% in January, while real DPI declined by 0.5% after a downwardly revised 0.6% rise in the prior month.

US personal income rose by 0.4% month-over-month in January 2026, following a 0.3% increase in December and below expectations of a 0.5% rise. The gain was mainly driven by an $83.7 billion increase in compensation, including a $71.2 billion rise in wages and salaries. Private wages and salaries grew by $67.5 billion, reflecting gains of $48.3 billion in services-producing industries and $19.2 billion in goods-producing industries, while government wages and salaries increased by $3.7 billion. Personal dividend income also climbed by $44.6 billion. Meanwhile, personal current transfer receipts increased by $18.0 billion, mainly due to a $49.2 billion rise in social security benefits linked to the annual cost-of-living adjustment, partly offset by a $16.7 billion decline in other government social benefits. Disposable personal income jumped by 0.9%, accelerating from a 0.3% rise in December, while real DPI increased by 0.7% after being flat previously.

US personal income rose by 0.3% month-over-month to $26.512 trillion in December 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in November, matching market expectations. This marked the seventh consecutive monthly rise in personal income, primarily reflecting a $38.4 billion increase in personal current transfer receipts, including a $23.0 billion from a wildfire settlement and $15.4 billion in government social benefits. At the same time, compensation rose by $31.0 billion, with private wages and salaries increasing by $19.0 billion and government wages and salaries increasing by $5.3 billion. Meanwhile, disposable personal income went up by 0.3%, the same pace as in November. Real disposable personal income was flat in December, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month.